Appalachian State (9-1, 5-1 Sun Belt) @ Texas State (3-7, 2-4 Sun Belt)
Saturday, November 23rd, 2019 2:30pm
Radio: Boone/Blowing Rock: WATA 1450 AM & 96.5 FM; North Wilkesboro/Hickory/Charlotte WKBC 97.3 FM; Asheville WZGM 1350 AM; Hendersonville WHKP 107.7 FM & 1450 AM; Charlotte/Gastonia WCGC 1270 AM; Charlotte/Rock Hill WAVO 1150 AM; Greensboro/Winston-Salem/High Point WSJS 101.5 FM & 600 AM
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 78.60
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 32.08 points
Line: App State -30
Series: App State leads 4-0
Last meeting: App State 38, Texas State 7, November 10, 2018, San Marcos, NC
WxCrum Forecast: Rain with temperatures creeping close to 50 for a high.
By late Saturday night, App State had worked their way into a rout of Georgia State by doubling them up on the scoreboard. The day did not start that way. After a late morning report that indeed Dan Ellington would suit up and start for Georgia State, questions were bouncing off all social media walls. It had not exactly been reported what Ellington’s injury was, but if you had watched football before, you knew it was serious. And then, we move onto the actual game itself. The Mountaineers fall into a 21-7 hole and things appeared bleak. Luckily for App State, Corey Sutton and Shaun Jolly can catch football in a variety of ways, and can also score touchdowns. Most of the day was spent in slight disoriented panic until order was restored moments before halftime. The Mountaineers do not win games like that often, and that is a true testament to the resiliency of this team. This was not trailing by a touchdown out of the gate at North Carolina, or by a field goal at South Carolina. This was a two touchdown deficit. Thankfully, the Mountaineers got it together and return home for hopefully the second of the last time of the season.
New Texas State head coach Jake Spavital is in charge of starting over in San Marcos. Since the Mountaineers have joined the Sun Belt, no team has more permanent head coaches than Texas State, with three. The Statesboro Eagles have also had three head coaches, but one left for greener pastures. So, let’s rephrase. The previous two head coaches at Texas State, prior to Spavital, resigned and were fired, respectively. All in all, not good. Texas State did not give Everett Withers a full recruiting class. Now Spavital is a really young offensive mind, which is all the rage at any level of football right now. Digging deeper, administrations and front offices love the Air Raid concepts that Spavital learned from Dana Holgorsen, Kevin Sumlin and Kliff Kingsbury. Spavital has coached a long list of successful college quarterbacks in his coaching career that has lasted just over a decade. They include Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, and Johnny Manziel who spent time in the NFL, and Kyle Allen, Kyler Murray and Will Grier, who remain rostered by NFL teams.
What you see, is what you get with the Texas State schedule and won-loss record. Not sure Bobcat fans could have expected anything else. Texas State won their FCS game against Nicholls State, edged South Alabama in a coin flip game, and beat a full strength Georgia State squad back in September in triple overtime at home. All three of their wins have come at home. But its those road games where Texas State doesn’t show up. In those four games, the Bobcats have been outscored 157-41, but to some decent teams in Texas A&M, Southern Methodist, Louisiana and Arkansas State. Yet, this will be the Bobcats longest road trip of the season by a lot. With nothing to play for except pride, can the Bobcats mount an effort that would send shockwaves through the conference?
The reason Jake Spavital was hired was to find and develop a quarterback at Texas State. That has been their sore spot for years. Spavital might still be looking. Tyler Vitt started the season for the Bobcats, but eventually gave way to Gresch Jensen. During the UL-Monroe game, Jensen was concussed and Vitt was back to being the starting quarterback. Neither Jensen nor Vitt have appeared in every game. That leads to part of the struggles of this Texas State offense, which is averaging just 18.7 points per game. The two have combined for 18 interceptions on the year and just 13 touchdown passes. The twelve picks thrown by Vitt is really mind boggling when you consider he has played in just seven games. Both quarterbacks have completion percentages in the low 60% range. Jensen is a transfer from Fullerton College in California, while Vitt is a sophomore at Texas State. Last year, Vitt threw for 106 yards, one touchdown and one interception in the loss to App State.
After scoring just one offensive touchdown against South Carolina the Mountaineers exploded for eight touchdowns against Georgia State. The first two offensive series for App State were three and outs that resulted in -5 yards of offense. After a first quarter touchdown, another punt and interception resulted, and then the touchdowns flowed. While the offense was lighting up the scoreboard, the defense turned away Georgia State on eleven straight possessions. By that time, the game was firmly in hand. Both sides of the ball looked ugly early on, but as soon as App State made their adjustments, it was light outs. Corey Sutton and Darrynton Evans were responsible for two insane plays, one a juggling pinball catch, and the latter a heads up, hand on the ground touchdown run after the appearance of being down by contact. For a game that began with so much angst and anxiety, the Mountaineers cruised to their fifth road win of the season.
The spread for this week’s game is the biggest of the season in Sun Belt play for the Mountaineers. The difference between this spread and the South Alabama game is all about where the game is being played – in Boone. Texas State does not do many things well on the football field. They cannot convert or defend well on third downs. They are one of the worst teams in the country as far as moving the ball on offense, and they just don’t score enough. Because of their inability to move the ball and score, their defense is eventually worn down as a game progresses. Now regardless of their struggles, they will throw the ball around a lot. Despite their hideous touchdown-interception ratio, the Bobcats are third in the league with 244.6 passing yards per game. Yet, they are on the low end in the conference with just 6.6 yards per attempt. Texas State throws a lot of short passes and they are second in the conference in completions and attempts. Running the ball just does not suit them. They are dead last in the conference by a large margin with just 83 yards per game on the ground. Ninth place Arkansas State has Texas State cleared by 50 yards per game. They’ll struggle to get to 1,000 yards rushing as a team over twelve games. That’s a tough way to win football games in college, where having a running game does matter. The Mountaineers will have their way with Texas State in an old fashioned “name your score” type game.
The First Pick