Appalachian State (1-0) @ #17 North Carolina (1-0)
Saturday, September 9th, 2023 5:15pm EST
TV/Video: ACC Network
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App
Kenan Memorial Stadium
Capacity: 50,500
Surface: RootZone 3D Blend AstroTurf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 72.39
North Carolina: 80.18
Home: 2.90
North Carolina is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 10.69 points
VegasInsider Line: North Carolina -18
Series: North Carolina leads 2-1
Last Meeting: App State 61, North Carolina 63, September 3, 2022, Boone NC
Last week was the game that the Mountaineers needed. It had a little bit of everything. An injury to a key piece of the offense. A game that was close in the second half. A backup quarterback that took the lead, and padded it to provide a necessary margin. Some stress and adversity will serve the team well in the coming months. The largest story by far is the quarterback situation. Nobody wants to see an injury to a player, especially not in the first game of the season. For the time being, App State appears lucky to have had a true competition throughout camp which has allowed Joey Aguilar to have the practice reps needed to be ready for this opportunity. It takes a special player to be ready at a moment’s notice, and perform like he did in that second half. It does not matter who the opponent is. On Saturday, Aguilar was the closer, and this weekend he will be the starter. Joey Aguilar will have the rare chance to become a household name a lot quicker than even he could imagine.
The Tar Heels may have put the end of their 2022 campaign behind them last week in Charlotte. They avenged their 2021 Duke’s Mayo Bowl loss to pseudo-nemesis South Carolina in the Duke’s Mayo Classic with a semi-comfortable 31-17 win over the Gamecocks. That sentence was a mouthful. That win ended a four game slump at the end of last season for North Carolina. Losses to Georgia Tech and NC State in Chapel Hill were followed by getting throttled by Clemson in the ACC Championship game and losing the Holiday Bowl to Oregon. So after starting 9-1 last season, and rising to as high as #13 in the Associated Press Poll, the season ended on a somber note. Hopes are high for the 2023 Heels, as they came into the season ranked 21st, knowing they have a potential Heisman candidate in quarterback Drake Maye. Yet, there is some caution in the wind with how bad their defense was last season. They showed some signs last week of improvement, but some are still not sold.
Without putting too much stock into one game of a long season, it still provides some glimpses into what a team might look like at the end. The Tar Heels were mostly in control of the game in the first half, but the scoreboard was not really representative of statistical discrepancies. The Heels had four true possessions in the first half and scored on three of those drives, and ended the other in South Carolina territory. They ran 40 offensive plays and rolled up 241 yards of offense on those four drives. After scoring on consecutive drives to start the second half, their next two drives ended in interceptions. South Carolina was essentially finished, but North Carolina gave them life in the second half. By that point, the Gamecocks had abandoned the run game, and Spencer Rattler was running for his life. The Gamecocks resorted to a horizontal quick passing game, which resulted in Rattler finishing the game with 48 drop backs. He was sacked nine times, with seven of those coming in the second half. Rattler finished an efficient 30/39 for 353 yards, without throwing an interception despite being harassed the entire second half.
Give some props to Gardner Webb for hanging tough last week, scoring some points, and making things a little more interesting than what a select few may have expected last week. At the same time, I am not sure enough could be said for how App State adjusted to the unexpected themselves. After a less than stellar open to the game, an injury forced Ryan Burger to the sidelines late in the second quarter. At this point, the Mountaineers trailed by a field goal. On the first play, Joey Aguilar stepped in and fired a pass to an open Kaeden Robinson, who dodged a defender and trotted into the end zone. The Mountaineers would go on to score on every possession that Aguilar directed, outside of one three and out in the fourth quarter. Curiously enough, as App State was trying to kill the clock on their final drive of the game, on a 4th and 1, the Mountaineers threw to the end zone instead of running the ball up two scores. It was mostly a meaningless touchdown, but for me, it sent a message. Something else on film to think about.
On the defensive side of the ball, there were certainly moments to be happy about, and others, not so much. The Webb did all their scoring in the second and third quarters, which really made things dicey as App State was trying to figure out it’s own offensive issues. However, the defense started the game with two possessions that went a total of eleven yards. In total, Webb had five possessions that went less than ten yards, and the Mountaineers forced turnovers on three straight drives in the second half. Pressure started to get into the Gardner Webb backfield, and disrupted the ability of the Bulldogs to step into some throws. The Bulldogs gave it their best shot, but in the end, the depth won out. It’s a process, but I believe that the defense learned a lot about itself. Although Gardner Webb and North Carolina have different offenses, there are similarities in strategy. Both teams looked their best when they were able to dictate tempo and stay on schedule with the chains. Finding those negative plays and avoiding costly penalties will be as vital this week as it was last.
Heading into last season, North Carolina suffered some injuries in the running back room which required them to lean on some younger guys. Caleb Hood had 87 yards against App last year, with most of that coming on a 71-yard run. This season he is fourth on the depth chart. Omarion Hampton managed just 17 yards in the game last year, but gutted out 42 yards on sixteen carries against South Carolina. The guy the Heels really missed last year was British Brooks, a 5’11, 225-pound back who ran for 103 yards against South Carolina With Brooks and Hampton, Maye only had four carries himself against USC. I believe the Heels want to take care of Maye as much as possible this season, and the best way to do that is with a good run game. Maye was not sacked on Saturday night in Charlotte, and the Heels would love to keep it that way. After seeing some of the success that Gardner Webb had with Narii Gaither and Jayden Brown, I was surprised the Bulldogs did not run more than they did. But their intent was clear, to force App State to make open field tackles outside the numbers. Mack Brown has mentioned it several times, from last year on to this year. The intent of the offense is to make sure that Drake Maye can facilitate, by getting the ball to his playmakers. North Carolina is still waiting to hear back on the second appeal of Tez Walker regarding his eligibility. In the meantime, Kobe Paysour was the hot target this past weekend for Drake Maye. He reeled in seven catches for 66 yards and a touchdown. Last year in Boone, with now Indianapolis Colt Josh Downs sitting out with an injury, it was also Paysour who paced the Heels with eight catches for 92 yards and a score. It’s fair to draw some data from last season’s game, outside of that wild and wacky fourth quarter. Are we set up for another similar game? The two previous matchups were absolute classics, that went down to the final plays. Why would anyone think that this game could be any different. There is plenty of tape on Drake Maye, and a lot to lean on from a year ago. Joey Aguilar is the unknown here. There is one half of FBS football tape here. Sure, the Heels can lean on Frank Ponce’s tendencies as a coordinator, but there is probably a big difference in calling plays for Chase Brice and for Joey Aguilar.
The First Pick
Baby Blues 30
Mountaineers 24
