Appalachian State (5-5, 3-4) @ Georgia Southern (7-4, 5-2)
Saturday, November 30th, 2024 6:00pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN+
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990
Paulson Stadium
Capacity: 25,000
Surface: FieldTurf Vertex Prestige
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 65.59
Georgia Southern: 66.64
Home: 3.26
Georgia Southern is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 4.31 points
VegasInsider Line: Georgia Southern -2.5
Series: App State leads 21-16-1
Last Meeting: App State 55, Georgia Southern, 27 November 25, 2023, Boone, NC
Here we are again. We have come to the point in the season when both sides have something to play for, and neither would like nothing more than to kill any hopes the other side has. It’s Georgia Southern week and nothing will make your skin crawl on either side quite like thinking about the other team. Both sides realize what is at stake. The Eagles need a win and some help from James Madison, who was just knocked out of Sun Belt contention after falling to our Mountaineers last weekend. On the other other hand, for App State, after an up and down season, there is still one more opportunity to salvage a season with a sixth win and bowl eligibility. But most of those possibilities are nothing but talk when it comes to these two schools. Not a single player will be thinking about championship games or bowl games. The only thing on anyone’s mind will be winning that day, because when it comes to App State and Georgia Southern, winning that game is the only thing that matters.
The Eagles have had a pretty ho-hum season to date. There is not a lot that stands out as for as results are concerned, but there are a couple games that have are noteworthy if you have not paid attention. Everyone remembers the shootout against Boise State to start the season where Bronco running back and Heisman candidate Ashton Jeanty broke out for 267 yards and six touchdowns. The best stretch of the of the Eagles season came when they won three straight games over a four week span in what was essentially three home games, playing Georgia State in Atlanta, and defeating Marshall and James Madison in back to back weeks in Statesboro. Southern overcame at 23-3 deficit to Marshall, all in the last ten minutes of the fourth quarter to steal one from the Herd. They followed that with a convincing 28-14 win over the Dukes in which they never trailed. Southern then went on the road to Old Dominion and were beaten soundly on the Thursday following the JMU win. The next week, another miracle happened, as Southern scored 20 unanswered in the fourth quarter to come back and beat South Alabama 34-30 in Mobile. Southern’s record could easily be 5-6 if it were not for those two improbable fourth quarter rallies.
Georgia Southern’s offense is predominantly a high volume passing attack, but not a highly efficient one. They rank fifth in the conference with 246.6 passing yards a game, but are only ninth in the fourteen team Sun Belt in yards per attempt. They do a lot of work between the 20’s in the passing game, but once they get into the red zone, they have 17 rushing touchdowns to only 10 passing touchdowns. JC French has been the primary quarterback for Southern this season, tossing for 2,453 yards, 15 TD’s and seven interceptions. French played sparingly against App State last season in Boone, mainly in mop-up duty, but did throw a 25-yard touchdown pass in those limited minutes. French had big games this season against Boise, where he threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns. Against Coastal last week, he threw for his second highest total of the season with 294 yards. He had three touchdown passes against James Madison, but also threw a season high three interceptions in the same game.
Last weekend had just about everything you can ask for going on outside of the football game. The James Madison game had previously been scheduled for Black Saturday, and Senior Day, and due to the Liberty game being cancelled due to Hurricane Helene, Homecoming festivities were added to a busy Saturday. On top of that, the High Country welcomed another kind of storm on Friday, as snow showers fell most of the day and into Saturday morning. Former professional football player Jason Kelce also dropped by and visited various tailgates, and spent time with both the radio and streaming broadcasts. So if that was not a busy enough day, the Mountaineers played one of the better games of the season, forcing two big turnovers against the Dukes, one being a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown, and the Mountaineers were not flagged for a penalty the entire game. Wide receiver Makai Jackson had a huge day with five catches for 162 yards and a touchdown, while Ahmani Marshall plowed his way toward another 100-yard performance on twenty-four carries. With the win, App State knocked the Dukes out the Sun Belt championship “contention” for the second straight year.
So it all comes down to this. One game for the hope of playing another. It’s a playoff type mindset heading into this final game of the regular season. Hopefully, if the Mountaineers win, there will be room at the table for another team in bowl season. The bowl committees will not have to reach past the 6-6 teams to fill spots this season, so there is a chance the Mountaineers could be left out even with a win. So what’s the plan? Play this one like it is your last. Hurricane Helene will always be a part of the story of the 2024 season. It changed our mountains, but it did not change who we are. Once this program was past the immediate danger of the storm, the identity of this team was restored. It may have taken some time to find their footing, but wins in three of the last five games cannot be ignored. The Mountaineers have played well enough in those three games they won, all at home, to keep the season alive. However they will still have to overcome to problems that have plagued them on the road all season long. The Mountaineers have not scored first in a road game this season. Their turnover margin in these road games is -12. Negative 12. App State was able to snag a win over East Carolina with a -1 margin, but in the other four games, the margin was -2 or worse, and they lost by 10 or more points in each game. Take care of the ball. The Mountaineers were able to play keep away against James Madison, who was the most opportunistic turnover team in the country going into last week. Georgia Southern has a +1 margin on the season, which is middle of the pack in all the land. Moving on, you may have noticed that Georgia Southern’s pass defense is a bottom fifteen unit in the country in terms of yardage allowed per game. The Eagles have allowed 200 or more yards passing in eight of their eleven games, and 270 or more yards in seven games. It’s been an issue for them all season. Meanwhile, Southern has also not been great at stopping the run this season, and have given up 189 yards rushing per game over the last four games. On the other side, Southern has not been great running the ball this season, averaging just 117 yards per game, but could that be a strength for them on Saturday, especially with colder temperatures expected? The Eagles played in 60 degree and sunny conditions last weekend in Conway, so it’s possible that intangible could swing in favor of the away team. All the stats are fun to look at and think about, but in this game, as it always has, it will come down to who wants it more. Both sides have something to play for, which sets this game up as a potential classic.
The First Pick
Gnatsboro 30
Mountaineers 37
