Appalachian State (5-4, 3-2 Sun Belt) @ Georgia State (6-3, 3-3 Sun Belt)
Saturday, November 11th, 2023 2:00pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN+
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App
Center Parc Stadium
Capacity: 24,333
Surface: Fieldturf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 68.10
Georgia State: 63.93
Home: 2.38
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 1.79 points
VegasInsider Line: Georgia State -2
Series: App State leads 9-0
Last Meeting: App State 42, Georgia State 17, October 19, 2022, Boone, NC
There is some optimism in the App State camp this week. Fans tend to move on quicker when the wins come in multiples. Forget what it took to beat Southern Miss on Homecoming, and instead focus on dominating a reeling Marshall squad. But that is how growth works. It’s not all results driven. Sometimes you just need to believe. The Mountaineers did not play their best game last week, but it looked like they did not need to. Now they can take that confidence into a game that is another must win, versus an opponent who they have never lost to. The Panthers have found their own slide in recent weeks and are looking to stay on the track in the division race despite three conference losses. The Panthers and Shawn Elliott might have their best shot of taking down the Mountaineers they have ever had. However, the Mountaineers could be finding their stride at the right time while Georgia State is going in the opposite direction.
The Georgia State Panthers are next on the schedule, and the current “state of their season” is one that somewhat mimics what we saw in the last week with Marshall. The Panthers started 4-0 but have been middling in the meat of conference play. It’s not a full-on Marshall free fall, but starting 4-0, and then dropping to 6-3 seems a little unsatisfying. Although Georgia State has won a couple games in the past five weeks, those wins look less impressive today than they did when they happened. One of those wins was a three-score victory over Marshall, who has now lost five straight. The other was a three-point road win over Louisiana who is a hard team to figure out. Georgia State led Louisiana 20-0 before the Cajuns scored the last seventeen points of the game. Louisiana threw an interception in the end zone on their final drive and the Panthers kneeled the clock away. All in all, Georgia State was a end zone interception on the road away from dropping four of their last five games, with their lone win being Marshall.
The Mountaineers will have their hands full with a two-headed running game from Georgia State. Marcus Carroll and Darren Grainger have been a dominant and consistent force all season for the Panthers. Carroll has six games this season going over the 100-yard mark despite being limited to just 33 yards by James Madison. He has garnered nineteen or more carries every week except last week, when the game script worked against him. After scoring ten touchdowns in his first seven games, Carroll has been kept out of the end zone in two of his last three games. However, Carroll had a season high 208 yards against Georgia Southern just two games ago. Grainger is having his best season in Atlanta. He’s likely to eclipse his passing and rushing yardage totals from a year ago, which were also career bests. You will see him on design run plays to take advantage of his athletic ability which has probably helped his passing numbers. Although his touchdown passes are down from a year ago, and he already matched his interception total from two years ago, there is a good chance this will be his best season as a Panther.
Limiting Marshall to just a field goal in the first half was exactly what the App State offense needed. The first four possessions of the game provided a feeling out process for both teams until the Herd broke through with three points at the beginning of the second quarter. The Mountaineers responded with touchdowns on their next three drives, while taking advantage of a short field, thanks to a diving interception made by Donovan Spellman. The three Marshall drives directly after those App State touchdowns went for a total of three yards. The teams traded touchdowns on back-to-back drives in the third quarter, while the Mountaineers closed the scoring in the fourth quarter with a field goal that was sandwiched by two interceptions by Jordan Favors. This was the performance most have been seeking all year. Marshall has lost five games in a row for a reason despite their defense keeping them in some games. The Marshall offense is bad, and the Mountaineers took advantage early and put them away.
So why all the sudden optimism? Reminder, Marshall’s offense is bad. For the most part, it was a mistake free game. That does not mean that mistakes were not made, but not the big ones. The Mountaineers did not turn the ball over, limited penalties and converted seven times on third or fourth down. Joey Aguilar did all he needed to do by completing passes to open receivers and even some that were not. A nice ho-hum 229 yards in the air while also leading the team with 44 yards on the ground. We might see such statistics from Georgia State, but having Aguilar lead the team in rushing yards is not in the long-term plans for App State. With Anderson Castle returning, App State will have the top five running backs from August on their depth chart ready and available for the first time all season. A committee approach could be forthwith in the final stretch run of the season as far as divvying up carries goes.
Something happened to Georgia State recently that was hard to identify at first. There are many ways to breakdown schedules and results. For whatever reason the Louisiana game continues to stick out. It is the best example of how Georgia State has played all season long. They run out to a quick lead, like they did, 20-7, and then get outplayed in the second half. The Panthers did not score in that second half and possessed the ball four times. Those drives went 55 yards. All resulted in punts. The Panthers even punted on a 4th and 11 play from the Louisiana 32-yard line. Georgia State survived that game but were outscored in the second half 10-0. The next week the Panthers were outscored in three of the four quarters by their in-state neighbors and best friends in Statesboro. Last week, James Madison outscored the Panthers in three of the four quarters as the teams were tied at 7-7 after the first quarter. In all, they have lost eight of the last ten quarters of football on the scoreboard. This is far different from how the season began, and really continued until this point. In the Panthers six wins, they scored at least 17 points in the first half, and in five of those games, scored 20 or more in their first half. In their three losses, they scored exactly seven points in the first half of each game. Seems simple right? Do not let them start fast. That is something the Mountaineers have struggled with during parts of the season. Now we all know that App State has lost four games, all by one score or less, and even when faced with a deficit have been able to hang around. Playing into that theme, Georgia State has given teams the ability to hang around. Seven of Georgia State’s opponents have thrown the ball for more yards than their current season average. Sure, some of that could be due to playing from behind, but this includes teams like James Madison and Georgia Southern who pretty much led the entire game. Madison and Southern both threw the ball for 334 yards on the Panthers. That figure represents 28 yards above Southern’s average and 71 yards above Madison’s. Rhode Island eclipsed their average by 115 yards. Charlotte by 90 yards, and Marshall by 68. For the season, opposing passing games have eclipsed 300 or more yards on four occasions, and 250+ yards eight times against the Panthers. This seems like a game that could unfold like last week. The Georgia State front seven is decent against the run, and App will give it a go early, before finding that green grass in the secondary. I like App State’s chances if they can force Grainger to throw the ball, where he has just four TD passes in the second half of games, and only four touchdown passes at home, and has thrown for only one-third of his season total yards in the second half of all games.
The First Pick
Not Cobb County 30
Mountaineers 38
