Appalachian State (2-2) @ UL-Monroe (2-1)
Saturday, September 30th, 2023 8:00pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN +
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App
Malone Stadium
Capacity: 30,000
Surface: Fieldturf Revolution
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 72.83
UL-Monroe: 52.73
Home: 2.46
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 17.64 points
VegasInsider Line: App State -13.5
Series: App State leads 6-1
Last Meeting: App State 59, UL-Monroe 28, October 30, 2021, Boone, NC
Sometimes when you think you do just about everything right, it still doesn’t work out. You can second guess your decisions, but the process was right. The results just did not show. From that point, you can either think about those decisions until it drives you crazy, or you can learn from it and move on. In college football, you have to move on. The time for dwelling in the past only puts you behind the following week. This is a new week, a completely different week. This is where the season truly begins. The Sun Belt title will be decided over the next couple months and there is not one team that appears head and shoulders above the rest. This might be the wildest Sun Belt season since App State joined the conference. The Sun Belt East race will be a gauntlet, but the Mountaineers will begin in the west with the Warhawks.
Monroe has had a rather shaky start to their season. After being throttled by Texas A&M on September 16th, the Warhawks were on bye last week, and needed it badly. Terry Bowden is trying to figure out his quarterback quagmire, having to alternate between Jiya Wright and Hunter Herring in the first three games. First it was Herring, who relieved Wright in a comeback win over Army, and seemingly won the starting job. The following week, Herring took a hit to his midsection and did not finish the game. That led to Jiya Wright starting against the Aggies. Brian Garcia logged a couple snaps, but did not fair much better. Now that we have reached the end of the first month of football, Monroe is still searching for guy that can stay on the field, by way of health or consistency. The Warhawks are averaging just 4.07 yards per passing attempt, which is the lowest figure in the country. They are one of two teams in the nation averaging less than 100 yards passing a game.
Running the football is something the Warhawks have been successful doing. It’s hard to determine whether it is a true strength of their offense, or if its out of necessity. As clearly one of the worst passing offenses to be found, it seems that Monroe’s best bet in the meantime is to shorten games and play ugly. Hunter Smith and Isaiah Woullard eclipsed the 100-yard mark against FCS opponent Lamar, but were contained against Texas A&M and always undersized Army. Smith broke off a 62-yard touchdown run in the win over the Black Knights, but carried the ball just seven times in the game. Considering that 46% of Monroe’s rushing yards this season came against Lamar, allows some doubt to creep back in my mind that this team can run the football. They have had some long runs, but the Warhawks are the eighth worst team in terms of offensive possession, and have the fewest first downs nationwide. The running game has allowed them to put points on the board, but on a drive-by-drive basis, they are not moving the chains enough.
For the first time this season, Joey Aguilar looked human. That could be part Wyoming, and part game plan. However, it’s unlikely that not scoring touchdowns is in the game plan. Aguilar did not connect on a touchdown pass for the first time this season. He did throw an interception, although the timing can hardly be blamed on him. Excluding his appearance against Gardner Webb, Aguilar has completed 54.5% of his passes, and his yardage totals since the North Carolina game have gone down with each game. The zero in the touchdown passes category sticks out. Failing to score a touchdown is why the Mountaineers lost. But it’s not all on Aguilar. The entire offense is responsible. Nate Noel had his worst game in terms of yards per carry, of the season. Only one receiver went over 50 yards. And lest we mention a field goal getting blocked leading to the winning margin with under two minutes left in the fourth quarter.
Busted plays happen, and if your defense only relinquishes one a game, that’s not the end of the world. It becomes bad when the offense cannot find the paint. Regardless, not much more could be asked of by the Mountaineer defense. They limited Wyoming to just 208 yards on 42 plays. Furthermore, the Cowboys converted just three of their twelve third down attempts and were forced to punt eight times. Wyoming threw the ball for just 31 yards in the game, while being sacked three times on just 15 pass attempts. It was a pretty dominant performance. Take away the long touchdown run, and Wyoming averaged just 3.2 yards per play. Yet, it was not enough. Stopping the run is sneaking up as a slight concern, despite the Mountaineers being able to fend off just about every quarterback coming their way. The Apps have picked off six passes on the season and allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw just one touchdown pass, in addition to surrendering just five yards per pass attempt.
Last week went just about according to plan. I was not surprised at how the game played from a strategy perspective. Both teams knew what they were capable of doing on both sides of the ball. However games are won and lost each week on a few plays. Its just that some weeks, those plays are more glaring and obvious then others. Those plays stuck out big time last week. Those wacky plays are hard to predict, and that is what makes this sport so much fun to follow. We do not watch to see the same things over and over, but for the unexpected. So after two weeks off, and it appearing that Monroe will stick with Jiya Wright at quarterback, what can we expect? Anything from Monroe where they don’t run the ball 40-45 times to shorten the game will surprise me. This will be the third straight week the Mountaineers will be playing “one of the worst” offenses in the country. Just about every advanced metric supports that theory. That Warhawks are not very good on first or second down, which leads to being really bad on third downs. They have converted just 11/41 third down attempts. With the clock continuing to run on on first downs achieved by offenses, time of possession it starting to become a bigger indicator of offensive success, or a lack there of. It’s not true in call cases, as quick strike offenses buck this trend. But Monroe is not a quick strike offense. They are not even really an offense that strikes at all. Their high water mark of scoring this year was just 24 points against an FCS team for crying out loud. An FCS team they let sneak back into the game after going up 21-0. Many times, Lamar skill players ran circles around Monroe defenders, yet they tightened up in the red zone, and capitalized on miscues. Expect a bounce back game from the Mountaineers, finishing in the end zone, and keeping Monroe well beyond arm’s reach.
The First Pick
It’s a Bird.. or a plane? 16
Mountaineers 35
