Appalachian State (3-3) vs Georgia State (2-4)
Wednesday, October 19th, 2022 7:30pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN2
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), Varsity Network App
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Capacity: 30,000
Surface: AstroTurf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 72.38
Ga. State: 63.28
Home: 2.10
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 11.2 points
VegasInsider Line: App State -10
Series: App State leads 8-0
Last Meeting: App State 45, Ga State 16 – October 2, 2021, Atlanta, GA
Well that was a tough one. The Mountaineers are hurting and clearly not the same team on the field the last couple weeks as they were to start the season. Every team evolves over the course of a season. It’s not often on the mountain, that our team struggles to find footing mid-season. So add those struggles to the list of wacky happenings in 2022. Does the second half the season have the same energy, or do things settle down? The way things have been, whatever happens, nobody will expect it. A lot people have had this game circled prior to the season as a potential swing game in the race for the Sun Belt East. At this point, every single game played in-division is a swing game. Easy games do not exist. A true measure of a champion, is taking on all challengers, and whichever team emerges, will have earned it. For App State, that time to earn it is now. The Mountaineers still control their destiny, but any help along the way will be well received.
Checking in with Georgia State this season, and it appears to be a typical season for the Panthers. It’s not been a forever trend, but a short one, that Georgia State plays better later in the season after a slow start. The Panthers had a tough schedule to begin their season with games against North and South Carolina, both losses, but not surprising results. However the slim loss to UNC-Charlotte at home was quite a shock. It remains the 49ers only win of the season. But after getting dusted by Coastal Carolina, the Panthers have rebounded for wins over Army and Georgia Southern. It will be a difficult road to six wins for Georgia State, with four games remaining on the road, especially with consecutive trips to the northernmost part of the conference in November to end the season. But the game this week will be in Boone, where the first blast of winter will arrive in the High Country with convenient timing for the home side.
As we have been told, time and again, the team that most resembles App State is our friends down in Atlanta. The Panthers have the same guiding principles – play good defense and run the ball. Essentially, controlling the line of scrimmage. It doesn’t always work, because there are so many factors beyond those simple things that can impact football games. First off, if you play good defense, it allows you to run the ball. In six games so far in 2022, Georgia State has struggled with the defense part. The Panthers are giving up 33.3 points per game on defense, which is 115th in the country. That includes allowing 33 or more points in every game this season outside of their win over Army, who has two FCS wins to their credit. What happens prior to giving up points? Typically its yards and first downs. The Panthers are 111th nationally in total defense, surrendering 438 yards per game, and 124th across the country in third down defense, allowing a 48% conversion rate to opposing offenses.
In 2021, Georgia State decided after their loss to App State, to hand the quarterback duties to Darren Grainger. He actually played a few snaps in the game, but did not start. He’s been their starter since, and he had some success, but it mainly ebbs and flows with the team’s success as a whole. Grainger is not the best passer in the conference by a wide margin, but he’s athletic enough to garner designed runs in the Panthers offense. Grainger can also gain yards when’s flushed and steps up in the pocket. Sometimes he gets in trouble going sideways when he feels pressure. He’s completed just 55.7% of his passes for 1,214 yards. He has twelve touchdown passes to just five interceptions, but a lot of that touchdown production came early in the season. Over the first three games, Grainger had eight touchdown passes, but only four TD passes in the last three games. Tucker Gregg is the Panthers leading rusher, covering 460 yards on 101 attempts. Jamyest Williams has 403 yards on 68 carries. It’s a balanced group that will get their yards, but the best way to get them out of rhythm is to get on the scoreboard first and make Grainger throw.
The App State offense has had the time they may have needed to get things back in order. Wednesday games are not the best for fan attendance, but it does give a team in search of some much needed rest some time to recuperate. It almost works as a half-bye week on both sides of the game. After Wednesday, the Mountaineers will not suit up again until October 29th. The Mountaineers have a couple things working for them. Coming off a loss is never fun, but this program has responded positively to adversity in the past. Playing at home in the elements should also benefit the home team. Facing a generous Georgia State defense should also be beneficial. Chase Brice shredded this defense last year in Atlanta to the tune of 326 yards passing and three touchdowns. Cam Peoples may be back after an off the field injury and could team up with Nate Noel, who returned to action against Texas State. Those two have only shared the field twice this season.
This will be the ninth meeting between App State and Georgia State. And we all know who has won every single game. Records are meant to be broken and no winning streak is immune to being snapped. The last time out, App State lost to Texas State for the first time ever. Georgia State had been a dark horse pick to emerge from the Sun Belt East. In this year of college football, just about anything is bound to happen. The Sun Belt East is a bloodbath this year. Expect anything and everything. With each game, you have to question yourself. Will we see chaos or does some semblance of a restored order even remotely come into play. If the Mountaineers are healthier, this game is a mismatch, but it depends on which App State team shows up. We have seen some really bad moments, and some great stretches of football. A four quarter effort is needed. It’s downright uncommon to see a Mountaineer team with less than 75 rushing yards in a game, which has happened in the last two games against FBS opponents. The Panthers are 106th in the country against the running game, allowing close to 180 yards per game. If it doesn’t get right on Wednesday night, you wonder if it will. On the other side of the ball, statistically at least, the App State defense will be the Panthers biggest test since they played South Carolina in Week 1. It’s looked rough at times, I know, but the Mountaineers are still holding down the 28th-ranked defense in terms of yards allowed. Currently South Carolina sits at 43rd in yards allowed. The Panthers five other opponents all rank in the bottom quartile in total defense – (Army 98th, Coastal 100th, UNC 125th, Ga, Southern 125th, UNCC 126th). The Panthers averaged 33 points a game against those defenses, while managing just fourteen points against USC. This game is not played on paper, but the paper looks ugly. If the Mountaineers can continue with an efficient passing game (14th best in the country), against Georgia State who is 97th in yards defending the pass, and 101st in pass efficiency defense, this game could get really long for the Panthers.
The First Pick
Blue Kittens 20
Mountaineers 34
