Appalachian State (2-2) vs Liberty (4-0)
Saturday, September 28th, 2024 3:30pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN+
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Capacity: 30,000
Surface: Astroturf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 65.47
Liberty: 69.49
Home: 3.87
Liberty is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 0.15 points
VegasInsider Line: Liberty -3.5
Series: App State leads 7-3
Last Meeting: Liberty 55 App State 48, October 11, 2014, Boone, NC
We did that thing again, and this time we did not respond. The record is skipping and we are seeing the same thing each week. When does it stop? Going through the motions for the last three weeks, it was hard to tell which direction we are going. Was Clemson good? Is Clemson great? What a great comeback at East Carolina. Man, it would be nice to score first and not give up a long touchdown. Is maybe South Alabama good? Are we bad? Can we score first? We’ve been asking ourselves all these questions in what feels like one of the longest weeks after a loss in recent memory. And then before you turn around, you are facing a good team, in a game that was not too long ago considered a possible elimination game for playoff considerations. It feels like those dreams are now fleeting, and we, as fans are hoping for any positive signs of life. Or perhaps, it was truly one bad game, and there is a lot of football left to play. And maybe we should not end this season before it gets started.
This weekend, we welcome back our old friend, or foe, back to Boone. Maybe he isn’t a foe. Those words might not be strong enough, which certainly means he is no friend. He has been a thorn in our side, and he takes every opportunity he can to disparage our school. Even when he throws his own employer under the bus to do so. From picking on a practice video that should have never been leaked to saying, “They should not have rushed the field over that”. His name is Jamey Chadwell. He has beaten Appalachian as a player, and as a coach at two schools, and would love nothing more then to add another hit on his resume. He has been successful at every coaching stop, and some would say he has the perfect job right now. Many look down on Liberty for the way they were welcomed widely into FBS football with open arms and a lack of football scrutiny, while other programs worked tirelessly for decades to get a whiff of any respect. Their unlimited tap of resources has allowed them to take advantage of the changing landscape of college football. However their quick swoop into Conference USA and their impeccable win-loss record will always be met with sobering reminders like a Fiesta Bowl beatdown from a year ago.
During this miniature run by the Flames, they have often been criticized for their strength of schedule, or lack of it. That was part of the uproar last season when the Flames finished 13-0, won the conference title and were granted access to the Fiesta Bowl against Oregon. Clearly the committee preferred an unblemished regular season over teams that many considered were “better” than Liberty, and maybe had a better resume, but still had lost a game or two. Liberty was ranked 23rd in the CFP rankings and 18th in the AP poll at the time. Fast forward to this season, and yes, Liberty does have four wins to no losses. The Flames beat Campbell in the opening week 41-24. Campbell is 1-3 with a win over Western Carolina. New Mexico State went 10-5 last year and lost twice to Liberty by double digits, but has started 1-3 this season. UTEP is 0-4, and App State fans are familiar with East Carolina’s 2-2 start.
App State started slow again. And this time, they never found a gear. It bears repeating. The Mountaineers were only down 28-7 at half, and that’s because of an improbable heave into the end zone as the second quarter wound down to Dalton Stroman that kept some fans around for the second half. It was a demoralizing loss that could not end soon enough, yet the pain still lingers long into the following week. South Alabama made the right plays on defense to keep the Mountaineers off sequence and without any type of rhythm. The ground game continues to struggle with no semblance of life. Each of the committee running backs had runs of over 10 yards, but neither had more carries than Kanye Roberts’ eight rushes. In all, twenty-five carries were split between the four with none of them finding enough creases to stay on the field. Anderson Castle leads the team with 39 carries and 184 yards, but the overall team output is underwhelming after four games.
Without the run game, it throws Appalachian’s balance off. It’s a domino effect. If you cannot control the game on offense, your opponent controls you on defense. Any App State team where passing the ball becomes a necessity is working against the foundation of how the team recruits, develops and gameplans. It will get better because it has to get better. On the other side, as the offense is unable to sustain scoring drives, the pressure just mounts against the defense. Emphasis on scoring drives, as App State has managed just 18.33 points per game in the last three contests. That’s just not going to get it done in college football. A rhythm has to be established. If you wonder why Joey Aguilar only has six touchdown passes on the season, it simply comes down to the inability to effectively run when needed. Don’t get me wrong. The defense got whipped last week, right from the jump. South Alabama’s offense averaged over 10 yards per play on the first two scoring drives. The Jaguars did not punt until late in the second quarter and scored touchdowns on four of their first five possessions.
We all know that Jamey Chadwell offense. They play best when they are ahead and can sometimes be out of sorts when they play from behind. That’s exactly what happened to Liberty last week when they faced East Carolina. The game started as regularly scheduled, both teams went three and out and weather delayed the game for over four hours before they resumed play at roughly 10:45pm. Liberty fell behind 17-0, almost exactly like App State did to East Carolina, before the Pirate offense was figured out. Liberty scored twice in the fourth quarter to secure the 35-24 win. The box score looked pretty normal for a couple teams who were playing well into the morning hours. East Carolina was buoyed by nine Liberty penalty flags that gave the Pirates 91 free yards and four first downs. That’s been a theme all year for the Flames. They have been flagged 33 times on the year for 360 yards. That is the fifth worst total in the country in penalty yardage. App State would love to take advantage of a few free first downs in they are available on Saturday afternoon. We have gotten this far and have not mentioned one Liberty player by name. As with Chadwell offenses from the past, it starts at the quarterback position. Kaidon Salter is the man who had a phenomenal year in 2023. He combined for 44 touchdowns, (32 passing, 12 rushing) while averaging 78 rushing yards and 205 passing yards per game. For the start of the 2024 season, Salter’s passing yards have ticked upwards by 32 yards a game while his rushing yards are down 35 yards per game. This exact same thing happened with Grayson McCall at Coastal Carolina from his 2020 season to his 2021 season. His passing yards per game went up by 35 yards per game while his rushing yards dipped 25 yards per game. I’m not one to think these numbers are coincidental, but this is about the time of the year where trends emerge. Most teams know what works well and what does not work well, and they usually call the plays that work. So does this game simply come down to how well App State can defend Salter? He’s not a game manager, but he is a playmaker. It just seems so far in 2024, he is distributing the ball more than he did last season. Most importantly the Mountaineers must work hard to get off the field on third down. They have allowed a 42% conversion rate to opposing teams while surrendering a 54% clip last week. Liberty ranks in the top 20 in the country in third down conversion rate. Liberty’s website says 51%, while the NCAA’s site says closer to 52%. The Mountaineers have to find some footing for offensive balance. The Liberty defense can be had as they gave up 24 points to both New Mexico State and East Carolina. That was the most points the Aggies had scored in a game, and the most the Pirates have scored against FBS competition.
The First Pick
Burning Bush 27
Mountaineers 30
