Appalachian State (4-4, 2-2 Sun Belt) vs Marshall (4-4, 1-3 Sun Belt)
Saturday, November 4th, 2023 6:00pm EST
TV/Video: NFL Network
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Capacity: 30,000
Surface: Fieldturf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 66.21
Marshall: 64.44
Home: 2.19
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 3.96 points
VegasInsider Line: App State -4
Series: App State leads 15-10
Last Meeting: App State 21, Marshall 28, November 12, 2022, Marshall, WV
The last third of the regular season is upon us and this is the time of the year when the championships are decided. Neither App State nor Marshall have looked like a division contending team. Yet the Sun Belt East remains wide open and could be for the taking. One would expect some teams to rise and separate themselves from the rest. This game will be a de facto elimination game for conference championship contention for whoever loses. It could be a fourth conference loss for Marshall or a third for App State, all to division foes. Like this series needed any more spice added to it. These historical juggernauts have routinely gotten into each other’s way since 1977. Marshall has won consecutive games in this series only one time when games were played in back-to-back years (1987-99). When Marshall won the Southern Conference in 1994, their only conference loss was to App State. Ten of the twenty-five games in this series have been decided by one score or less, and Saturday looks to be no different.
The Thundering Herd were having a great start to their season until they got to the month of October. They started the season with four wins but have not won a game since. Three of the first four games were played at home, with the one road game being played at East Carolina, who is now 1-7. Three of the four October games were played on the road, and the other was James Madison on a Thursday in Huntington. There were signs of this Marshall squad appearing to fall behind, but their schedule did them no favors. Looking back, FCS Albany and ECU should have been pushovers. However, the Herd played Albany to a four-point game, and the ECU game was played tighter until late in the fourth quarter, in a game that had a weather delay. Suddenly, the schedule got tougher, but defeating Virginia Tech by a touchdown seemed to set aside the woes of the previous games. After playing in one score games in four of the first five games, Marshall lost the last three games by multiple scores and have zero offensive touchdowns in the last two losses.
The true heartbeat of the Marshall team is junior running back Rasheen Ali. His season got off to fast start, thanks to 91 carries, 475 yards and nine rushing touchdowns in the month of September. However, just like the Herd, Ali has fizzled in October. Ali missed the game against James Madison and has just 218 yards in the last three contests and only two rushing touchdowns. Ali had a season low 12 carries for 52 yards last week against Coastal Carolina. Continuing the theme of the downward October trend, just look at the play of Marshall quarterback Cam Fancher. His completion percentage has dropped nearly ten points from month to month, from 71% to 61.3%. In September, Fancher was sacked just twice. In October, he was sacked nineteen times!! So, when you wonder why Fancher did not finish the Coastal game, Marshall coach Charles Huff was quoted, “overall health and general lack of execution.” Huff also mentioned that he would have kept Fancher in had the game been close.
This is what this team will do. We are going to give you some anxious moments in the first half while the offense gets going, and then some tense moments in the second half as the team adjusts, and ultimately gives themselves a chance late. The Mountaineers scored five touchdowns in the second half, and four touchdowns on their final four possessions in the win over Southern Miss. The last three touchdown drives travelled 228 yards and took only 15 plays. Joey Aguilar threw for 391 yards. It might have been the quietist nearly 400-yard performance in recent memory. All that credit goes to the pass catchers who finished in the end zone. Dashaun Davis’ 57-yard touchdown reception was a highlight catch and run. Christian Horn had a superb game with eight receptions, 165 yards and two scores. Eli Wilson also scored on a 26-yard catch and frolic to the south end zone. Although the run game was slowed tremendously, Kanye Roberts turned a middling performance into a respectable one with a 61-yard go ahead score to help him finish with 109 yards for the second straight game.
The defense is still growing and figuring out how to put their best players on the field. Giving up a first drive touchdown has occurred in three of the four Mountaineers’ home games. Playing from behind is frustrating, but at this point, the players are accustomed to it. Understanding your deficiencies is as important as maximizing strengths, and in the short term, might be more important to this group’s success. The Mountaineer defense intercepted six passes in the first four games and allowed just one touchdown pass. Yet, the month of October has seen App State intercept just one pass while surrendering eight touchdown passes. The defense has also allowed over 400 yards in four straight games, and 560+ yards in two of the last three weeks. The 175+ rushing yards allowed in each of the last five games was punctuated by a 301-yard effort by Southern Miss last week. Marshall has the worst rushing offense in the league by a wide margin, even with Rasheen Ali averaging 99 yards a game.
There are a couple different ways to look at this game. Both teams have a unit that performs well above their conference opponents. When App State has the ball, they will have their hands full with a defense that has been mostly stingy, but a lot has been asked of them of late with the Marshall offense stumbling. Conversely, that Mountaineer defense has given up a lot of yards lately. Is it so simple as to which team has the worst unit? This Marshall offense is essentially all Fancher and Ali. They have been asked to do a lot, and at times they have, but there is only so much punishment they can take. A lot of Fancher’s game comes down to scrambling out of the pocket, which forces him to complete a lot of off-platform throws. That is shown by how many yards he has lost as a “runner”. It’s a little sickening to see that Fancher was credited with 45 carries in games against Old Dominion, NC State and Georgia State, in which he gained 136 yards. At three yards a rush, that does not seem too bad, but 102 of those 136 yards came against ODU. The next 30 carries went for 34 yards. This next twelve carries, against JMU went for -66 yards. Keep in mind, this includes yards lost being sacked. Against Coastal, he had seven carries for eight yards. Can you see the picture here? Fancher has been beaten up physically over the past five weeks and the only cure might be rest. The question becomes, how does Marshall maximize their best players, who are dealing with injuries, over the course of the next four weeks? Cole Pennington stepped in for Fancher for the final five drives of the Coastal game. The first went 60 yards over fourteen plays but resulted in a turnover on downs. The other four drives resulted in a fumble, another turnover on downs and two interceptions. Fancher and Pennington threw two interceptions each. Marshall will make a big play or two. Fancher is more likely to make those plays and Ali will not be far behind. The Mountaineers must limit those big plays and counteract them when Marshall gets in long yard to gain scenarios. I trust the App State offense to find the end zone enough times against this Marshall secondary, who is susceptible to balls over the top.
The First Pick
Turds: 24
Mountaineers 30
