Appalachian State (8-5, 6-2 Sun Belt) vs Miami (OH) (11-2, 7-1 MAC)
Saturday, December 16th, 2023 3:30pm EST
TV/Video: ABC
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro), 96.5
FM/1450 AM (Boone), 99.1 FM/1060 AM/1030 AM (Charlotte),
105.3 FM/1320 AM (Greensboro), 790 AM (Johnson City),
107.7 FM/1450 AM (Hendersonville), 103.9FM/1250AM (Marion), Varsity Network App
FBC Mortgage Stadium
Capacity: 45,301
Surface: Tifway 419 Bermuda
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 70.98
Miami: 68.36
Home: n/a
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 2.62 points
VegasInsider Line: App State -4.5
Series: First Meeting
Last Meeting: n/a
Last time out did not go as planned. Troy was a deep and very experienced squad, and the Mountaineers are still a little green in spots. It gives App State a measuring stick to what needs to be done in the future to complete the reset. But that process has begun. And the mantra in the last half of the year was to keep digging. The breakout was coming. Luckily the Mountaineers had two chances to bring some hardware back to Boone this season. The last couple weeks have been tough, knowing for some players who are playing their last game in black and gold that this moment was coming. But they do have one more opportunity to leave their legacy. Before them is a game that can set the table for 2024 and beyond that can get App State back to the place they belong. It’s been 42 years since App State played on ABC, and they earned this opportunity to show the world what this school is all about.
This will be the first ever meeting between Miami and Appalachian State. There is zero history to fall back on or even reminisce about. The Mountaineers have enjoyed success against the Mid-American conference of late. App State won their first three bowls games from 2015-2017 against Ohio, and Toledo twice, but have not faced anyone from the MAC since then. Miami has had their best season since 2010 when they finished with a 10-4 record and won the MAC title. The Redhawks eleven wins this season is the most since 2003 when they finished 13-1 and won the MAC title. Chuck Martin has been the coach at Miami since 2014 and this was his second MAC championship with the first coming in 2019 when the Redhawks finished 8-6. Martin is 56-61 all time at Miami in his first head coaching job at the FBS level after coaching six seasons at Grand Valley State where he went 74-7 and won two Division II championships.
The Redhawks nonconference slate appeared challenging to start the season. They had the Miami from Coral Gables, Fla. and Cincinnati on their schedule along with FCS Delaware State and perennial FBS bottom feeder UMass. The Hurricanes went 7-5, Cincinnati squandered to 3-9 along with UMass, and Delaware State was victorious just once. Six of the Redhawks opponents finished with four or fewer wins, and only four teams finished with 7 or more wins. This is what typically happens in the MAC. A lot of teams play poorly, and a handful of teams make impressive runs, but you always wonder how good they really are because of the other members in the conference holding them down. Now Miami did get an overtime win on the road in Cincinnati, in the annual Battle for the Victory Bell. It was the first in the series for Miami since 2005. So maybe, after all the soft schedule talk, there was some premonitions of Miami enjoying a special season back in September.
The hardest thing to look back on is a lopsided final score that didn’t represent how well the game was played for a good 40 minutes. Slowly the dam broke, and it all unraveled in the fourth quarter. No shame in losing, but the waning moments of the championship game was sure to leave the Mountaineers unhappy. App State lost out on their chance for one championship and will move on to another. After sitting out of bowl season in 2022 and losing a championship game and bowl game in 2021, this postseason appearance is critical. We were all witnesses to the five-game win streak and ultimate turnaround of the 2023 season. The true measure of that switch will come with a bowl victory. It’s very tough to imagine even thinking like this. App State won their first six bowls game, a record that will likely never be matched. And the only bowl loss was to a generational passing offense with the Mountaineers licking their wounds in the secondary from opt outs and injuries. But that is the case anymore in college football. The postseason no longer looks like the regular season and your roster and strategy flips almost overnight.
So, in terms of acting like bowl games are the postseason, it really is a preseason-type game to prepare for the 2024 season. There are plenty of transfers on both sidelines who contributed to their team throughout the season, who will not contribute to this bowl game. But as always is the case with App State football, an absence by one player creates an opportunity for another. This game will further open the door for players like Makai Jackson, Dalton Stroman and Kanye Roberts to breakthrough and help cement roles and potential legacies for the future. We all remember performances in bowl games from names that will never be forgotten. The Zach Matics walk off in the first Camellia Bowl. Darrynton Evans’ kickoff return for a touchdown for the following year in Camellia Two. I am going to keep going. Jalin Moore’s three touchdowns in Toledo Two to go along with Clifton Duck’s interception and ensuing antics. Wide receiver Malik Williams tossing not one, but two touchdown passes against MTSU in New Orleans One. Thomas Hennigan mossing the UAB Blazers for two touchdowns in New Orleans Two. And finally, Camerun Peoples setting a single game rushing record to go along with five touchdowns against North Texas in Myrtle.
You may notice that we have not really dug into the game or yearly statistics just yet. Honestly, there is not a lot to choose from. The Mountaineer defense will face a familiar feeling this week as they did earlier in the season. For a stretch of games, quarterback uncertainty on the opposing sideline made it difficult to scout and prepare. While that issue fizzled as the season went on the Mountaineer defense began making major strides. The turnovers started flowing which triggered a five-game win streak. So, enter the Miami Redhawks who lost quarterback Brett Gabbert to a season ending injury. Gabbert had started 39 games in his career and is responsible for 66 touchdowns. Aveon Smith led the way from the October injury for Gabbert through the conference championship game against Toledo. Smith then cited his intent to transfer as a graduate with two years remaining to play. That leads Miami to turn to Henry Hesson and Maddox Kopp. Hesson has appeared in three games in his career and Kopp has yet to see the playing field for Miami this season. This is why this situation feels less like the continuation of the 2023 season and more like an audition for next season. This is not new to college football, but it is new to App State. It’s bowl season, so anything is really on the table. You could see a completely different Miami offense or one that plays a lot more conservative than usual. Whatever comes from the quarterback position from Miami is likely to decide the game. Otherwise, the Redhawk offense does not come across as explosive. They average 331 yards a game, which is 100th out of 131 teams. App State opponents ULM, ECU and Wyoming are behind the Redhawks nationally in total offense. That provided Mountaineer fans two close games and one lopsided. The close games were both on the road, way back in September. The defense is the Miami calling card. They hold opponents to just 325 yards per game, which is good enough for 27th nationally. The only other App State foes with top 50 defenses were Troy, Wyoming and East Carolina. It’s interesting that the teams that might resemble Miami the most on paper were App State opponents at the beginning of the season. Miami has more offense than East Carolina over the course of the season, but what does Miami give back with a third and fourth option at quarterback playing in the game? The Wyoming defense was pretty good in how they kept opposing offenses in front of them. The problem the Mountaineers had against Wyoming was scoring touchdowns in the red zone. Miami has allowed just 36 red zone trips from opponents and gave up touchdowns just half the time. That will be a huge key for the App offense, in a game where rain could have an impact. I question the Miami offense having enough, especially considering this is the best passing attack their defense will see all year, rain or shine. Give me the Apps to cover going away.
The First Pick
MyHammy 17
Mountaineers 34
