Appalachian State (3-4, 1-3) vs Old Dominion (4-4, 3-1)
Saturday, November 2nd, 2024 2:30pm EST
TV/Video: ESPN+
Radio: FLAGSHIP 97.3 FM (North Wilkesboro),1060 AM/97.3 FM, & 1030 AM/99.1 FM (Charlotte), 96.3 FM (Greensboro), 96.3 FM (Winston-Salem), 1350 AM/96.1 FM (Asheville), 790 AM/93.7 FM (Johnson City), 1450 AM107.7 FM (Hendersonville), 1250 AM/103.9 FM (Marion); The Varsity Network App, Sirius/XM 990
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Capacity: 30,000
Surface: AstroTurf
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 63.27
Old Dominion: 67.83
Home: 3.18
Old Dominion is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 1.38 points
VegasInsider Line: Old Dominion -2.5
Series: App State leads 3-1
Last Meeting: App State 21, Old Dominion 28 October 21, 2023, Norfolk, Va
Quickly, we are back at The Rock for another home game, and for the second week in a row the stakes are just as big as they were last week. To keep any slim hopes in the conference title hunt, the Mountaineers are faced with one goal. Win the week. They will face an Old Dominion team that could not be any hotter than they have been in some time. As the calendar turns into the month of November, coaches and players often say one thing. This is where you are remembered. The Mountaineers have one option, and that is to win. After an up and down season, and a tumultuous last several weeks, the goal is that simple. Go win. Try and set aside what you have been through, or whose services you are without. If you are wearing pads, you are lucky enough, and you have the chance to help your team. Need a leading running back to block a punt? Go do it. Need a reserve kicker to make a special teams tackle. Go do it. This past weekend reminded me of a former starting quarterback, who lost his job, and then started weeks later in the defensive backfield. He didn’t pout about his situation. He remained committed to his team. He went and did it.
Old Dominion remains one of the most mysterious teams in the Sun Belt. Week in and out, you might not know which team will show up, or what surprises they may make across the conference landscape. Despite starting the season with three losses, the Monarchs have turned some heads the last couple weeks with home wins over Texas State and Georgia Southern. Never underestimate the power of a long travel day in the Sun Belt. San Marcos to Norfolk is well over a 1500 mile trip, the longest trip in the conference by far, featuring the team who is situated the furthest west, and its easternmost team. Old Dominion then caught Georgia Southern on a short week, and perhaps after a hangover from beating James Madison and a come from behind win over Marshall the prior week. This week, the Monarchs hit the road to Boone, where they have never won in two attempts. Old Dominion has road wins this season at Bowling Green and Georgia State, both games decided by a touchdown or less.
The Monarchs have been energized by the play of redshirt freshman quarterback Joseph Colton, who lit up Georgia Southern last week in his best game of the season. Joseph threw for 304 yards and four touchdowns and complimented his aerial attack with another 69 yards on the ground. Previously this season, he was a bigger threat running the ball, as he has eclipsed 65 yards rushing or more in five games. The 304 yard performance against the Eagles gives him 875 yards on the season, to go along with being the teams second leading rusher with 412 yards on the ground. The 47 point outburst by the Monarch offense was boosted by a +2 in the turnover margin and by possessing the ball for nearly 35 minutes for the game, both numbers that represent a season high. Outside of last week, the Monarchs had only cracked the 30-point threshold in two other games, a squeaker over Bowling Green in a 30-27 win, and a 37-45 loss to Coastal Carolina.
At this point in a season, you take what you can get. Overall, the win over Georgia State was not pretty, but the final score was needed in a bad way. From here you can build on things that worked and continue to work toward a finished product. It’s a lot easier to watch film after a win than a loss. For the first time all season, Joey Aguilar did not need to throw more than 30 passes in a game, much less a win. That’s a good thing. He posted his second highest completion percentage of the year and most importantly, failed to turn the ball over for the first time in four games. The running game found a groove as well. The last three games provided the best three game stretch of the season as far as total yardage is concerned. For the first time this year, it was Ahmani Marshall who carried for a season high 18 times, and turned in a 115-yard performance to lead the Mountaineers. Kayne Roberts was held to 38 yards but still carried the ball thirteen times. Kaedin Robinson turned a 121-yard effort, which included a season long 50-yard reception, but has still failed to see the end zone after seven games.
Off the top, it’s still tough to imagine any App State football team being an underdog at home, even if by the slimmest of margins. And maybe the more difficult part to digest from a distance is an App State team being spotted points to a team with a 4-4 record. However, that’s what ODU does. They play tough games at beginning of their schedule to prepare them for conference games. They want to improve as the season progresses. Forget the reasons why a team is 4-4 and how they got there, and focus on what they are doing right now. Nobody will remember why ODU won three games in a row six months from now, they’ll just remember that they did. So when a program like Old Dominion, wins a few games in a row, people notice, and that’s exactly why they are favored this weekend. The last such streak for the Monarchs came in 2021, when they won five games consecutively against Louisiana Tech, FIU, FAU, Middle Tennessee and Charlotte. The explosion of points last week by Old Dominion is the kind of stuff that strikes fear in the opponents eyes. It’s similar to thinking that they finally put it all together. Besides the Coastal game, this point total is a little bit of an outlier. The Monarchs played from behind in that one but could not catch up. The Georgia Southern defense can give up chunk yards, and a high rate of third down conversions, and that showed last Thursday. This might sound crazy, so I’ll whisper. I think App State’s defense has played better situationally as of late. The Eagles were stunned offensively, and had to abandon the run game, something that they weren’t especially good at in the first place. And once a team like Old Dominion finds a way to expose you, they will keep going back to those same plays until you figure it out. They are unafraid to run the same concepts over and over. I would expect a similar run/pass ratio for the Mountaineers that they had last week. They were successful enough running the ball and Joey Aguilar took care of the football and found open options better than he has all year. Taking care of the football is a must, in what I call a 50/50 game. This one all depends on who has the ball at the right time and has the fewest unforced errors throughout. Don’t get caught committing a pre-snap penalty on a medium to short yardage situation that gives the other team an easier down and distance. Clearly, stay away from personal fouls after a big play that can flip the field and momentum to the other side. Give yourself a chance to play another down, by simply accepting your losses, and avoiding turnovers. If the Mountaineers can play their game, they will win. Just go do it.
The First Pick
Blue Lions 27
Mountaineers 35
