Appalachian State (7-2, 4-1 Sun Belt) vs South Alabama (5-4, 2-4 Sun Belt)
Saturday, November 13th, 2021 2:30pm EST
Radio: 97.3 FM North Wilkesboro, 96.5 FM/1450 AM Boone, 1320 AM Greensboro, 107.7FM/1450 AM Hendersonville, Varsity Network App
Kidd Brewer Stadium
Jeff Sagarin Ratings
App State: 75.27
South Alabama: 57.02
App State is favored by the Sagarin ratings by 20.34 points
Line: App State -22
Series: App State leads 3-1
Last Meeting: App State 30, South Alabama 3, October 26, 2019, Mobile, AL
It happens every year. November football in Boone. A date reserved for a school that is located much further south then where App State is situated. The calendar says fall but the thermometer says winter. This will be South Alabama’s first trip to Boone in November. Mercury levels do not decide football games, but it sure is fun to talk about. We have reached the final third of the regular season, and many teams know their fate for the remainder of their games. South Alabama has some work to do to extend their season past the scheduled twelve games. They need to grab a win in one of three games where they will be decided underdogs. App State’s work continues with three pivotal games that will decide whether or not they get to play for a conference championship. These last three games are super important. There is no time for a slip up. South Alabama is improving. Troy is knocking on the door. And well, you know how Georgia Southern games can go. New week, same goal. 1-0.
Many across the Sun Belt have wanted South Alabama to become a thing for several seasons. One, they foresee the Jaguars as being the closest program to giving Louisiana some competition in the near future. Secondly, they have shown brief success in the past, but have never been consistent winners. South remains in their FBS infancy, as this is just their tenth season playing a full slate of FBS & Sun Belt opponents. Steve Campbell was fired as coach last year after going 9-26 over three seasons. Campbell had a difficult time adjusting to Division I football. New coach Kane Wommack represents an investment by South Alabama to get better at football. Wommack spent two years in Mobile as a defensive coordinator and linebackers coach in 2016-17 and then spent three years in Bloomington at Indiana, before returning to the deep south, where he spent the majority of his coaching and collegiate playing career.
For the third straight week, App State will play a team that is juggling its quarterback depth chart. South Alabama’s Jake Bentley, by way of South Carolina and Utah, was injured against Troy last week and did not return to the game. Oddly enough, Bentley was South Carolina’s starting quarterback in 2019 to begin the season, before, you guessed it, he was injured. Next up is Desmond Trotter, who App State faced in 2019. Bentley has not been ruled out, but it appears Trotter would start this week. Trotter played in all but one game for South in 2020, and also appeared against App State two seasons ago. Trotter was 3/8 passing for 43 yards on a wet day in which the App State defense gave up just 144 total yards. Trotter will offer some mobility from the pocket that Bentley did not have, but he remains limited as a passer. If South Alabama decides on offensive philosophy change is needed, it could present problems for App State without any tape go on.
Three of South Alabama’s four losses have been on the road. Four of their five wins have been at home. The games that do not fit that mold is their two point home loss to Louisiana and a three point road win at Bowling Green. In both of those games, special teams played a major role at the end of the game. A field goal lifted the Jaguars at the horn after their defense forced a turnover with less than two minutes remaining in the game. South trailed by a touchdown entering the fourth quarter. In the Louisiana game, the Cajuns scored the first 20 points, and the Jaguars the final 18 points. South failed to convert any of their point after touchdown attempts. Two kicks were either missed or blocked, and the two point conversion in the fourth quarter was also unsuccessful. The Jaguars also missed the go-ahead field goal with just over a minute left in the fourth quarter. Those games happened in the first month of the season, but the last five game have stayed true to form: win at home, lose on the road. The two home wins were to teams that are in last place of the respective divisions of the Sun Belt.
Outside of a short stretch in the second quarter, App State was dominant on both sides of the ball against Arkansas State. The Mountaineers jumped out to a quick 14-0 lead, allowed the Red Wolves to tie the game briefly, and then scored 34 unanswered points to finish the game. The big highlights were provided by Steven Jones Jr., who recorded three interceptions on the day and returned two of them for touchdowns. Malik Williams added a 34-yard touchdown pass to Thomas Hennigan, and also led the team with five receptions for 58 yards. Both Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel eclipsed 100 yards rushing and added touchdown runs. Noel is now up to 889 yards rushing on the season. Williams and Corey Sutton are now separated by just two receptions and thirty-three receiving yards for the year. Both have five receiving touchdowns. The defense holding the Red Wolves to less than 200 yards of total offense while adding four quarterback sacks and the aforementioned three turnovers, made it an easy day for the Mountaineers.
As with other opponents App State has faced this season, the question always comes down to what version of that team we shall see. Monroe was very similar in that they were streaky, and their play was very dependent upon whether they were at home or away. Those similarities exist for South Alabama. Now we also have to ask ourselves another question about the Jaguars. How closely will they resemble the team they were in the first nine games with Jake Bentley, compared to this Saturday. Desmond Trotter and South Alabama won four games last year, over Southern Miss, Texas State, Monroe and Arkansas State. Oddly, the Jaguars lost to two of teams this year in Texas State and Monroe. It’s quite plausible that South passes the eye test, but when the numbers add up at the end of the season, the records might look fairly similar as last season. Most of this speculation refers to the offense. That is where those questions revolve around. Defensively, the Jaguars are solid. In most defensive statistical categories, the Jaguars rank in the upper half to upper third in the conference. They aren’t a brick wall, but they won’t give you much. It will be important for both teams to sustain drives and keep their defenses fresh. South Alabama leads the conference in time of possession and App State is third. South leads that category despite averaging 19.7 first downs a game, which is seventh in the league. App State converts its possession advantage to 24.3 first downs a game, which leads the league. Building off of that, this game might come down to what South Alabama can do with the ball. The Jaguars do run the ball, but they are not the best at it, averaging 3.5 yards per carry, going up against an App State defensive front that is third in the league against the run at 3.7 yards per carry. On a day where wind could be a factor, the team that can run the ball with the most consistency should have an advantage. The loss of Jake Bentley could neutralize Jaguar receiver Jalen Tolbert, who is by and far the biggest threat on the Jaguar offense.
The First Pick
Faux Cheetah 21